A 4-bed turnkey wholesale package inside the Lara West Precinct Structure Plan. Indicative $766,900. A licensed agency appraisal rents the build at $600–$650/wk. Greater Geelong is funded into the late 2030s by $23B+ of state-backed infrastructure across the Lara catchment.
Villawood-nominated builder panel · fixed-price turnkey contract on sourcing confirmation. 392m² lot · 180m² build · 2.74m ceilings · ducted reverse-cycle A/C · 7-Star NatHERS.
Greater Geelong is forecast to scale from 289,565 (Jun 2024) to 500,000 by 2050 and ~1,000,000 by 2075. Lara's 9-year compound growth is 6.6% pa — through a pandemic, a hike cycle, and a 2023–24 correction.
Single source of truth for all suburb-level figures in this report.
| Metric | Value | Source · Note |
|---|---|---|
| House median (suburb) | $790,228 | OnTheHouse AVM · 7 May 2026 |
| 12-month price growth | +8.5% | OnTheHouse · houses YoY |
| 9-year CAGR (houses) | 6.6% pa | Cotality / CoreLogic 2017 → 2026 |
| 10-year CAGR (Greater Geelong) | 5.8% pa | Cotality 10-yr to Mar 2026 |
| Median weekly rent | $580/wk | SQM Research April 2026 · house |
| 12-month rent growth | +5.5% | SQM · $555 → $580/wk |
| Vacancy rate | 1.4% | SQM · sub-1.5% = landlord market |
| Median days on market | 32 days | PropTrack · Lara houses |
| Sales (12 months) | 482 | PropTrack via Hotspotting |
| Owner-occupier share | 76.1% | ABS 2021 · top of Greater Geelong |
| Greater Geelong pop. (Jun 2024) | 289,565 | id.profile |
| Greater Geelong forecast (2050) | 500,000 | Committee for Geelong |
| Melbourne house median (capital) | $982,876 | Cotality HVI Apr 2026 |
| RBA cash rate (May 2026) | 4.35% | 3rd consecutive 2026 hike |
| Hotspotting verdict | RISING | Geelong LGA · Nov 25–Feb 26 report |
The pipeline isn't promises. The prison opened in July 2025. The West Gate Tunnel opened in December 2025. Hanwha Defence is in production. Avalon's freight terminal is complete.
Every Lara 3212 sold comparable for new 4/2/2 stock pulled live from CoreLogic RP Data on 7 May 2026. The headline average counts only the three like-for-like sales — the $1.006M turnkey print and the 2-bed sit outside the average as labelled context rows.
CoreLogic RP Data · pulled 7 May 2026 · all Lara 3212 · all 4/2/2 unless noted.
| Address | Sale price | Date | Land · Build | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Kettlewell Dr · Lara | $750,000 | 25 Oct 25 | 392 m² · 171 m² | 2024 build · 58 days on market |
| 12 Pickering Cr · Lara | $1,006,372 | 06 Apr 25 | 392 m² · turnkey | Upper-bound context · excluded from average |
| 8 Meadow St · Lara | $775,023 | 22 Dec 24 | 392 m² · turnkey | 2-bed · wrong configuration · excluded from average |
| 15 Penstone Cr · Lara | $750,000 | 22 Jul 25 | 392 m² · turnkey | FHB-priced sale · FHOG eligible · 45 days |
| 48 Penstone Cr · Lara | $749,000 | 07 Dec 25 | 294 m² · 161 m² | 2026 build · now leased $575/wk Apr 26 |
| Like-for-like average | $749,667 | 3 sales | — | Excludes the turnkey outlier + the 2-bed (context rows above) |
12 Pickering Crescent sold $1,006,372 in April 2025 — same 392 m² lot, full turnkey, retail. Lot 2013 captures the same depreciation profile and the same Coridale catchment at a $239k discount to that print.
48 Penstone Crescent leases $575/wk on a 161m² build over 294m² of land. Lot 2013 is +19m² of build on +98m² of land, plus Coridale Club access — directly supporting the licensed agency's $600–$650/wk appraisal.
39 Blackwood Road is currently listed $695k–$735k. 393 m² lot · 129 m² build · 2020 build (6 years old). If it sells at the top of range, that's the floor for older and smaller stock on the same lot footprint — and validates Lot 2013's $766,900 at +$32k for brand-new with 51 m² more build.
Year 1 depreciation advantage: ~$11,000–13,500. Stamp duty efficiency on land-only: $18,500 saved at acquisition. Tenant appeal premium: +$50–115/wk above established. Holding cost differential vs older stock: $3,000–6,000/yr over the first 5 years.
The primary scenario: 90% LVR no LMI on a $100k PAYG salary. Investor pays 10% deposit, stamp duty (land only), legal and buffer. Lender funds the rest on settlement; construction draws are lender-funded thereafter.
Every line item the investor pays at and around settlement.
| Item | Amount | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Purchase price (indicative) | $766,900 | Land $376,900 + Build $390,000 inc GST |
| Loan @ 90% LVR | $690,210 | Investor IO 6.50% · no LMI |
| Deposit (10%) | $76,690 | Paid in stages — EOI → land exchange → build deposit → settlement |
| LMI | $0 | Waived (professional package / family pledge) |
| Stamp duty (VIC · land only) | $17,684 | 1.4% to $25k · 2.4% to $130k · 6.0% on balance |
| Mortgage + title registration | $656 | VIC Land Use Victoria |
| Searches | $350 | Council · titles · ATO |
| Solicitor · conveyancing | $2,500 | Standard new-build (Realtyex panel solicitor) |
| Loan setup · variation buffer | $994 | Lender admin + misc settlement adjustments |
| Total cash to complete | $98,874 | Funded from investor savings |
Loan held IO at 6.50% (RBA 4.35% + 2.15% margin). Salary $100k · 32% effective MTR. Appraised rental scenarios.
| Line | Low · $600/wk | Mid · $625/wk | High · $650/wk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross rent (annual) | +$31,200 | +$32,500 | +$33,800 |
| − Vacancy (3%) | −$936 | −$975 | −$1,014 |
| − Property mgmt @ 8.5% | −$2,652 | −$2,763 | −$2,873 |
| − Council · ins · maintenance | −$3,800 | −$3,800 | −$3,800 |
| − Loan interest (IO @ 6.50%) | −$44,864 | −$44,864 | −$44,864 |
| = Pre-tax cashflow | −$21,052 | −$19,902 | −$18,751 |
| + Depreciation (non-cash) | −$15,000 | −$15,000 | −$15,000 |
| = Total taxable loss | −$36,052 | −$34,902 | −$33,751 |
| Tax refund @ 32% MTR | +$11,537 | +$11,169 | +$10,800 |
| Net post-tax weekly | −$183/wk | −$168/wk | −$153/wk |
Compounding from indicative entry $766,900. Loan held flat at $690,210 (IO). Conservative below Lara's 6.6% historical · Base slightly above it · Optimistic assumes infrastructure-led acceleration.
| Year | Conservative · 5% | Base · 7% (slightly above Lara's 6.6% historical) | Optimistic · 9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yr 1 value | $805,245 | $820,583 | $835,921 |
| Yr 3 value | $887,720 | $939,461 | $993,200 |
| Yr 5 value | $978,653 | $1,075,565 | $1,180,124 |
| Yr 5 equity | $288,443 | $385,355 | $489,914 |
| Yr 5 equity multiple | 2.92× | 3.90× | 4.96× |
| Yr 10 value | $1,249,067 | $1,508,558 | $1,815,793 |
| Yr 10 equity | $558,857 | $818,348 | $1,125,583 |
Income capitalisation, adjusted sales comparison, and replacement cost build-up — three independent methods, equally weighted. The blended estimate frames the manufactured-equity figure used elsewhere in this report.
Indicative — not appraised. Independent registered valuation required before settlement.
| Method | Indicative value | Weight | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income capitalisation (mid · 3.75% cap) | $866,667 | 33% | $32,500 rent ÷ 3.75% · Lara new-build avg cap |
| Sales comparison (adjusted from 16 Kettlewell) | $860,000 | 33% | +$15k build · +$25k Coridale · +$20k vintage · +$50k 12-mo growth |
| Replacement cost build-up | $968,000 | 33% | Retail land $390–410k + retail build $504–558k + holding |
| Blended estimate | $898,222 | — | Mid-point across three methods |
| Subject contract (indicative) | $766,900 | — | Realtyex wholesale · sourced 7 May 2026 |
| Discount-to-value · manufactured equity | $131,322 · 14.6% | — | Day-one paper equity at settlement |
Every line item of the 90% LVR primary scenario consolidated. Mid-rent assumptions throughout ($625/wk appraisal midpoint). Indicative pricing · fixed-price contract on wholesale sourcing confirmation.
$100k PAYG salary · 32% effective MTR · appraised mid rent $625/wk · 6.50% IO.
| Indicative purchase price | $766,900 | Realtyex wholesale · sourced 7 May 2026 |
| Loan amount | $690,210 | 90% LVR · Interest-Only |
| Deposit (cash · staged) | $76,690 | 10% |
| LMI | $0 | Professional package or family pledge |
| Stamp duty (VIC · land only) | $17,684 | $376,900 land · build is GST |
| Cash to complete | $98,874 | Deposit + duties + legal + buffer |
| Annual IO interest @ 6.50% | $44,864 | RBA cash 4.35% + 2.15% margin |
| Rental appraisal (mid) | $625/wk · $32,500/yr | Licensed agency appraisal · 7 May 2026 |
| Pre-tax cashflow (mid rent) | −$19,902 / yr | Year 1 stabilised |
| Year 1 depreciation (Div 43 + 40) | $15,000 | QS schedule at PC · indicative |
| Tax refund (mid rent · 32% MTR) | +$11,169 | Stage-3 bracket + Medicare |
| Net post-tax weekly (mid) | −$168/wk | Underwrite holding cost |
| Discount to blended value | $131,322 · 14.6% | 3-method triangulation |
| Equity at Yr 5 (Base 7%) | $385,355 | 3.90× cash invested |
| Equity at Yr 10 (Base 7%) | $818,348 | 828% cash-on-cash |
| Recommendation | PRIMARY · Allocate | 10–15 yr horizon · single-dwelling wholesale |
Lodge the EOI to lock Lot 2013 with Villawood and trigger the fixed-price contract through the Realtyex wholesale channel. Holding deposit is refundable per EOI form terms.